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Planet of the valley

I have a place where all the sorrows are reset, and a new approach to the issue or problem takes on a human face and kindly smile. It might be just the forest and so it is. Przedeptane path I called for the order reigns among them - "Planet of the valley" has an oval shape, is pretty well hidden from intruders. Yes, in truth, I am also an intruder, and always uszczknę little something. But we like to know about it. When I'm on the planet lily of the valley, I feel a little girl, greedily accumulating the Perfume. Arrange in a bouquet of white and green. I want to give my mom. This feeling never leaves me. Lily of the Valley at the time the planet has stopped. And that brief moment is sufficient to hopeless cases have become meaningless and restored my life.

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The devaluation of the ruble in Belarus was inevitable

devaluation of the ruble in Belarus was inevitable. The country has a high negative balance of trade and small reserves. Such an economy exposed to risks of currency panics. Belarusian Central Bank will be up to the last stand is not to release rate in a fully free float, as it is fraught with hyperinflation. If we manage to bring down a financial panic, the devaluation of the serious increase export capacity to increase gold reserves. But if the point of equilibrium will be found if the government will impose overly restrictive, and the panic continues, it is not ruled out economic crisis in a single country.

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small revolution

When after a week off, I looked for my blog - trembled. Gray and sadly, not a single photograph. Profile picture disappeared. Panorama of Torun opening my blog - invisible. Probably the regulations profile in Picasa, closed a useful option, and no I have for her. There is a council. Simply edit each post and once again add a photo. Thankless task, but what is not done for the reader ... I promise to apply daily after a few amendments. And in this way get away from the crazy May day, which were to bring joy and forgetfulness. I admit that flew through my head, nasty thought of winding the blog, but not - staying at the station. I have to win the war on their own laziness. Who knows, maybe this little revolution, took me spionizować?

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risks of default of Greece and financial scenario for 2011

dynamics of world markets in 2011, follows the usual yearly scenario: through May - the growth, then four or five months - the fall and volatility, starting in September - the growth. From May to September, the markets could use any excuse to fall and then to rise again. If the default Greece occurred in May 2010, it would be a global financial catastrophe. Over the past year, the markets have adapted to the idea of \u200b\u200brestructuring the Greek debt. Possible losses of European banks have already minimized. This means that if the news goes on the restructuring of debts of Greece, with high probability this is not will collapse, followed by a new round of crisis. Instead, it will leave the market down (with subsequent fluctuations in the summer) and the growth since the beginning of autumn, without interruption worldwide trend resumption of economic growth.

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life man must survive. But what makes that an individual with incredible optimism even live our lives. Works, founds a family, struggling against adversity ... Often the bends, is subjected to przeróżnym trials, eliminating the fear and humiliation. Getting to her anxiety, insecurity, fighting pain and illness. To endure all that is needed is faith. This man she comes to the rescue. It is like a lighthouse - it gives a light and leads to the goal. Belief in the desirability of the action, is a guarantee of victory. Strengthens it in yourself, and your neighbor does not pick up the faith, or otherwise - do not undercut the wings. Faith can move mountains. This is the key to the most valuable vault. To love. And most important: each person is the holder of that key, but if he wants to use it ...
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U.S. sovereign default - do not believe your eyes. A series of three.

There was mass speculation about the likelihood of default on sovereign debt of the United States. The series, consisting three blog entries will contain a detailed explanation - why the probability of it negligible.

Do I need this explanation for the "Bedtime stories"?

Lest we discussed the mythic events, false risks, children's fears in financial markets, addressing the real issues, which a great deal.

Argument 6. share of non-residents - holders of sovereign debt the U.S. is 30,3% ( Table 4 ). Investment base of sovereign debt formed mainly within the U.S. (the proportion of residents - 69.7%).

main investor - the state itself. The share of central bank (Fed) federal agencies and non-budgetary funds of the Government in the ownership structure of public debt amounts to 40,4% of its amount, taking into account the investment states and municipalities - 44,3%. The economic content of this or emission (investment Fed), or a deduction from the public debt (the state's investment in their own debts).

It can be naraschena to more than 50% (2001 - 2007 was over 51 - 54%).

Argument 7. normalized (increased to pre-crisis values) Medium term U.S. government debt ( Table 5 ). For the obligations owned by private investors, he has reached almost 5 years.

argument 8. In the long term there may be a script (so far with a small probability), in which the increase in public debt U.S. will lead to a noticeable increase in the use of money issue to cover the deficit and, consequently, to a noticeable increase in inflation and downward pressure on U.S. dollar exchange rate.

Factors of concern are as follows. In recent years there has been a return to the improving capacity of government debt United States, primarily to counter the crisis, 2008 - 2009 years. ( Table 6 ). If in the future rate of increase in the debt burden will be reduced, as has happened earlier, the situation is normalized in the coming years.

impact on the economy of Russia

defaulted on sovereign debt the U.S. would mean the world financial meltdown and a deep crisis in the global economy, which would be raised in the first place, the Russian Federation (scenario 2008 - 2009.) would cause large-scale economic and social disruption.

It defined the leading U.S. role in global economics and finance. Experience in crisis 2007 - 2009 years., Trigger which became U.S. financial markets (mortgages, securitization products, the risks of the banking sector) fully confirms this fact.

Russian Economy Federation in a large-scale highly dependent on global economic growth of world demand for raw materials, the dynamics of the U.S. dollar as world reserve currency on the prices of energy and metals, which are formed in foreign financial markets, access to international capital markets.
forecast in the long term 10 - 15 years preserving U.S. global leadership in reducing the U.S. share of world GDP and advance the growth of other centers of economic (production, domestic demand, consumption of the population). As a consequence, will develop multipolar architecture of global finance, will shape the world monetary system, based on 2 - 3 reserve currencies.

In this situation, the top priority of the Russian Federation is a partnership with all key financial players (the United States - Britain, the euro, Asian Center, the Latin American cluster, first of all, Brazil that international investors view as an analogue of Russia). Goal - diversification of external relations, to benefit from partnerships with all the financial centers, financial equidistance, making it possible to maximize the benefits in the prevention of imbalances in financial vector foreign policy.

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U.S. sovereign default - do not believe your eyes. Series Two.

There was mass speculation the probability of default on sovereign debt of the United States. The series, consisting of three blog entries will contain a detailed explanation - why the probability of this negligible.
Do I need this explanation for the "bedtime stories"?
That we have not discussed the mythical events, false risks to children's fears financial markets, addressing the real issues, which a great deal.

Argument 3. growth of the relative level of sovereign U.S. debt (gross debt) corresponds to a similar trend in other major industrial economies (Table 2). Their saturation with money, debt instruments, associated with the state, is constantly increasing, including through the ability to engage in money centers "excess liquidity" from developing countries (International reserves, export of private capital). This long-term trend is not interrupted by crisis in 2008 - 2009 years.

Argument 4. quantity of pure sovereign U.S. debt (Table 3) is much lower GDP (Table 2). Net debt - this is gross debt minus government deposits in banks and other liquid financial assets owned by the government and which can be converted into money and to repay debt.
debt burden in the U.S. are lower than in other countries "Big Seven" and in the euro area (Table 3).

Argument 5. Sovereign U.S. debt is denominated in national currency - U.S. dollars. Borrowing other currencies are insignificant. There is no scarcity of foreign exchange for repayment in it (the most important cause of defaults on state debt). As a last resort, the state can use the issue of national currency to meet the obligations and avoid default.

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difficult to rescue the word

This difficult word is ordinary - sorry. are people who abuse the wyrażenia.Posługują useful to him to cover against a surprise attack. But sometimes it causes such defense aggression. Shows us a man weak, fearful and overly trying to please. Strong does not like it and expresses it. Opposed to przepraszających, a group that does not schańbi the apology. He is aware that it is wrong to recognize their mistake, sorry-but the words in vain to expect.
False directs the actions of our pride, inflated ego does not allow for humility, especially when a woman deserves an apology. Often turn upside down and pretend to be victims themselves. A funny man, and raised their children, if you can not muster that word-balm.

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U.S. sovereign default - do not believe your eyes. A series of first

There was mass speculation about the likelihood of default on sovereign debt of the United States. The series, consisting of three blog entries will contain a detailed explanation - Why the probability of it negligible.
Do I need this explanation for the "bedtime stories"?
That we have not discussed the mythical events, false risks childish fears in financial markets, addressing the real issues, which a great deal.
Methodological remarks : In the note as alias (in accordance with statistical practice), the terms federal U.S. debt (Federal Debt), the U.S. national debt (Public Debt), the U.S. sovereign debt. Economic content - the debts of the federal government.
estimate of the probability of default. In the medium term the probability of default disparagingly small. Decision about the default was to be unprofessional, irrational, with no economic justification. The script that implements the default - only in the case of a completely irresponsible and unqualified management team managers (the U.S. administration, monetary authorities in the U.S.) if she did not have No political, economic and financial expertise. The situation for the U.S. impossible.
Arguments:
Argument 1 . Level of sovereign U.S. debt until the is "normal" for the leading industrialized countries (G-7) (Table 1).

Argument 2. dimension of sovereign debt of the United States and other leading industrial countries is largely a consequence of their greater "financial depth» (financial depth) - greater saturation money (monetization of the economy), debt-asset finance instruments ("financialization"), in comparison with other countries. The U.S. and other G-7 countries - including 20% \u200b\u200bof world economies that have the highest monetization, most "penetrated" debts.

The higher the level of economic development, greater financial depth of the country, the greater its ability to attract investment in the economy through debt instruments (loans, bonds, treasury bills, etc.). The higher the level of debt (government, corporate, retail). This confirmed by extensive factual basis in studies of financial development, the World Bank.

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chemistry and what's next? Life Hook

All today we talk about chemistry between partnerami.Zgadzamy that it guarantees the existence of dizziness, sparks, or even a real fire. Excites and addictive. Matched pair should have similar levels of testosterone and estrogen. Only with such system can be a spiritual harmony. But that is only matched pairs of 3%. Everything else is doomed sooner or later, the slow burn, or a simplified form - the usual boredom. And this is the first step to betrayal. And what next? Remembering is a wonderful trembling heart, look no further ... and perhaps common sense and stay on the old land? I can not give a straight answer. I use the words of the poem: "it is still so many other things ..."

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often use the simple copy function. I grab the mouse for the picture or text, and attracts a new position. Or perhaps you need in your life like? It suffices to think, and wish to attract to each other. Yes, I know, I heard on the Law of Attraction. I'm sure it has long been unconsciously been using selected techniques. I think this is the hook in my life. The energy attracts like, and she realized my dreams. Sometimes I have to wait, but I am confident that I will see a beautiful time of implementation. And all this has future success and I know that I have the hook for life. And this is my beautiful way home.

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spring greetings

very, very underestimate the reader, giving so rare records. And yet so much is happening. Fascination with so many new experiences ... It stores like a hamster. Until the day comes when the accumulated goods translate into words. In turn, it seems to me that words do not reflect the consistently beautiful. I have a hunger and a sense of smallness and fineness of words. I saved your imagination paper, but the words spoken are angular and rough. He will probably also have such states. That is why I like photography. She speaks on my behalf. In it to convey a part of themselves. Yours coming.

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what happens to the yen

If a country has an earthquake, risks of a sharp economic deterioration, a common scenario - the flight of capital, intensified the demand for dollars, euros, etc., falling local currency, the flash inflation, the crisis of banks, etc. In Japan - all the way around. Strengthening yen, from 11 to 18 March by 4,8% against the U.S. dollar. Yen "vertically" went up. Reasons? Firstly, This rise reinforced the long-term trend. For four years (March 18, 2007 - March 18, 2011). Potyazhelela yen a third against the U.S. dollar (strengthened by 33%). Secondly, in Japan - a very strong international investment position (investments abroad almost twice the funds raised). This is a country - Exporter capital. Therefore, "capital flight", "sudden stop non-residents investments" - all the things that cause financial turmoil in Russia and other developing countries - does not play such a role. Bank of Japan to keep the situation, announced March 14 on the transfer of additional liquidity in circulation, the broad money support of financial institutions by buying their assets - government and corporate bonds, mutual funds. The limits of this program ransom had been raised in the 8-fold - from 5 to 40 trillion. yen (about U.S. $ 500 billion). Presumably, to obtain cash for liquidity support, without resorting to the issue, the Bank Japan began to sell its assets in foreign currency (dollar, euro, etc.). Or borrow yen. Consequence - increase in demand for the yen and, hence, its gain. Any fluctuations in the rates of key currencies (and the yen - one of them) are threatening global financial upheaval. It is therefore understandable attempt to counter other central Banks G-7 to smooth out these spikes. Their possible actions - selling the yen and its assets denominated in it, and, therefore, downward pressure on the currency, against the market forces pushing it up. It is not clear whether enough material market in the assets of the central banks of developed countries to implement intervention. In the structure of their foreign exchange reserves yen is only 5% (about $ 130 billion in autumn 2010). Can be calculated - the effect of statements of intent. Or on a coordinated central bank play a fall in the markets of foreign exchange derivatives that do not require cash reserves of the yen, but it can significantly influence its course.
Japan's share in Russian exports - 3.1% in import - 3,7%, the accumulated foreign investments - 3,2%. Not higher than the share of yen in assets and liabilities Russian banks. Therefore, fluctuations in the yen will not have significant influence on the ruble. A different matter if economic and financial situation in Japan will deteriorate and will - according to the rule trigger - crisis response, addressed to global finance.

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Track and coordinate

I'll share with you today the discovery of which (as often happens with discoveries) accomplished by pure chance. Working on a project I needed to change the coordinate system. Task, we admit, quite simple .. I happened to open the Task window, so: a quick click on the current drawing , then i. Coordinate system. it turned out that the accuracy is bad for me. I clicked on a government too low and I could not perform the change of coordinates, but instead ran the unfamiliar, sounding disturbingly little tool Herring coordinates ...

Tracking Coordinate looks inconspicuous, but may be helpful in many situations. The tool allows you to keep track of (display) position the cursor in a different (even several at a time) coordinate systems. For example, we can simultaneously display the coordinates of the systems 1965, 1992 and 2000. You can use them for the conversion of coordinates, or work on the links to the various systems. Tracking you may also be useful for drawing (for example, a simple line) you can draw using the current drawing coordinate system, drawing or any other connected.

There are two (at least) ways to incorporate Tracking: first described already before - for those that like me are shaking hands J and a second (faster and easier) to enter on the command line MAPTRACKCS. Notice to mirror the command, I often forget about the penultimate C..

Remember Tracking Coordinate only works when the drawing is assigned a coordinate system.

to write!

pp

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future financial Crisis: "safety cushion" again would not work. Extreme Russia.

Russian economy and its financial sector - one of the most volatile in the world. The reasons for this - in my book, due out in April ("The financial future of Russia: the extremes, booms, system risks ").

example.

known thesis about how the accumulation of international reserves, the National Welfare Fund and Reserve Fund ("safety cushion") saved the Russian economy in crisis 2008 - 2009 years.

not saved. Everything was absolutely the opposite.

by a representative group of the largest (and most developed) economies in the world, which is monitoring the magazine «Economist», no one country do not fall capitalization and so is not falling down the exchange rate, as in Russia (Table 1). The most profound was the decline in GDP. The most high - inflation (excluding Venezuela). In the most reduced international reserves. The largest loss of accumulated foreign direct and portfolio investment. One of the highest per cent (Table 1). Will be shown below that in Russia crisis passed through the deepest drop in the money supply, unusual for other countries, who at that time built up its liquidity. "Airbags" (High international reserves and reserve funds, budget surplus, a healthy balance of trade) have not saved from being Russia's financial system showed the worst financial crisis dynamics during 2008 - 2009 years. in comparison with other major countries.

Table 1. The behavior of the financial systems of countries world in crisis in 2008

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^a «color-drenched" quadrants of the table refer to the countries, the indicators which showed the worst values \u200b\u200bamong the other countries in the period of market shocks, fall 2009 - winter 2010

* Stocks - according to the magazine "Economist", 2009, 3 January, in U.S. dollars exchange rate change - February 2009 to the end of 2007, according to the IMF International Financial Statisitics; change in GDP at constant prices (national currency), inflation (consumer price index, the annual average) - IMF World Economic Outlook Database. Data on changes in international reserves - IMF COFER Database, including Norway - for November 2008, the euro area - by the Eurosystem (the state - members of the eurozone and the European the central bank)

Table 1. The behavior of the financial systems of countries in crisis in 2008 (continued)

* Percentage (Lending Rate, Corporations, Stocks, up to 1 - 2 years), the change of accumulated direct and portfolio investment in the economy - IMF International Financial Statistics

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Other City

Another City, I was always intimidated. I need to learn and get used to it. I think I need to process things in my thoughts known. This adds confidence and sense of security. Do not play this record from memory, carefully write down all the sustained impression and it is wonderful, pioneering feeling.

So, I went frosty, Sunday after the February Bydgoszcz-registering new experiences. Frost opustoszył streets, the tram only rozpychał the measure. Houses hide its contents, and did the windows tightly closed city silent and deserted. Through a hole in the glove nawiewało cold air, accelerating the decision to press the shutter. The sharp, icy winds forced the decision to return. Turned toward the sun.

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Notes from the front

how to make the Russian economy growing steadily, and the financial sector - a prosperous? One from the obvious recipe - the growth rate of accumulation, the cessation of O "excess liquidity" from Russia, the focus on domestic demand growth, primarily middle- class.
higher savings rate, the greater the rate of economic growth. In Russia it is low enough and at the level of developed countries (25% in 2008, 19% in 2009) whereas for the creation of conditions for high economic growth rate of savings must be maintained at a level above 30% (China - more than 40%). Table below compares the rate of accumulation of several countries:

Country,
2007 Growth of capital and reserves / GDP,%
China 43,1
Kazakhstan 36,1
India 37,6
Russia 24,6
Greece 22,3
U.S. 19,5
UK 18,3
Germany 18,4


More than 50% of developing economies have a higher accumulation rate of 26%. Over 80% of developed countries - less 26%. Loading the Russian economy as "developed" (taxes - about 50% of GDP, a low savings rate, excessive consumption of government), taking out a business financial resources, we can not expect rapid modernization and social stability

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Orthophotmap plot - automatically in your project

When designing certainly often encounter the problem of importing data to a drawing of plots, with orthophoto background. Probably many of you often uses the data collected from Geoportal and using a screenshot inserts them into the drawing. There is then the problem of combining optics, georeferencją etc. And what if you could connect to a Web Map Service Service or Web Feature Service from AutoCAD Civil 3D and automatically load the data?

In the movie, which you can find below, I join the service and download WMS Geoportal boundaries of parcels and orthophotomap. I invite you to my presentation.

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AXN winds imagination! SUPPORT

AXN TV began its program of a social nature as "AXN. We run the imagination. " is a nationwide project aimed for school-age children who attend social clubs . Its purpose is to awaken creativity and imagination of children, giving them the chance to be zauważonymi, docenionymi, to encourage teamwork and motivation to act. We sent our
comics:) and managed to got to the next stage:)

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Sunflower

I chose a sunflower that in this example, the spin considerations. Its fruit topped with a flower-shaped scales, sometimes of impressive size. Maybe it's easy to observe the rotation toward the sun. Hence the nazwa.Tak, the sun governs all-sol omnia regit. Omnipotent and revered. In ancient times the sun was a god. Man-just flying a bird on the planet Earth - just like a sunflower is associated with słońcem.Chwali them in poetry, with its music, song ... His love is called the sunshine and the invalid, that sometimes, like the sunflower, tilts head toward the other suns. Draw

But he did not want to be sunshine. He would not be a sunflower. On her prom dress carnival king chose. Why? - Because the king ruled by sunshine and sunflower seeds. I think that in time will learn humility in the face nature. Not everything can be tamed. Well, it did not work out Remisiowi governance at the ball. For the second year will be a witch-believes in the power of her spells. Let it be, faith works miracles.

.

Kiss for my sunshine.

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Step in the Clouds

At Autodesk Labs, came just a new addition to Civil 2011 - Feature Extraction Point Cloud .

extension to facilitate the import and processing of point cloud data it contains - a tool for classification and segmentation. You can also "draw" with the data on the geometry of the road-for example, the edge of the roadway in a 3D polyline.

Feature Extraction Point Cloud is available for download (after logging in) at this point [...] instalki addition you will find there are a few video clips and instructions. In my opinion, a new tool is remarkable and test, but the Review alone.
pp

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Alinka

This little toddler is just three months. Two things amaze me. The absolute loathing for dummies, and hence denial of drinking milk from a bottle. So mom Alinki must be continuous, milk ready. The second wonder is the development of speech-and specifically articulate the words: mom. When I go to Alink to a large mirror, carefully watching his reflection, minki doing and laughs out loud. I completely conquered this little lady. For clarity-Alinka is my granddaughter.

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theory meaningless prediction

completely - and completely erroneous forecast of the famous Rudolf Hilferding, made in 1909 ("Financial Capital", Moscow - Leningrad: State Socio-Economic Publishing House, 1931. - P.345):
«parallel reduction the role of speculation, change and the psychology of the capitalist public. Psychology of the speculator is very primitive, although his fans and try to open it prophetic abilities and romantic poryvaniya a worldwide reformation. In fact, the changes that have occurred in the behavior of the speculating public sufficiently explained by the common place of capitalist man: live and learn - and not cum still stupid. It seems irrevocably passed those mass psychosis as engender speculation in the early capitalist era, those blissful days when every speculator felt like a god, creating world out of nothing. Fuss with tulips, with their so idyllic overtones, as a poetic love of flowers, humbug to the South sea stocks, surrounded by adventurist - exciting fantasy unprecedented discovery, draft Law on his prospects for world conquest, it's all pushed frank hunter for differential profit, but it ends up crash in 1873 Since then disappeared faith in the miraculous power of credit and Exchange ... Exchange shedding their faithful and retained only the priests, who from other faith do their gesheft ... uplifting and profitable extravagance evaporated, tulips have long faded, and coffee tree gives a trading profit, but does not present speculative profits. Prose poetry kills profits. "
All this is completely untrue and now, a hundred years after these words were written.

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forecast - 2011

Financial Dynamics 2011 will be determined by the "cold" (low-rate and deviations) restoring the economy of industrialized countries (the second year after the crisis of 2007 - 2009.) slowdown of the developing countries, a gradual retraction their processes in rebalancing the world economy (with a change in "financial picture" of the world), against the backdrop of a cautious resumption of financial globalization, growth in financial depth (financial depth) and the securitization of national economies, increase their capitalization, slow, gradual loss of imbalance and the extreme volatility of global finance (with periodic outbreaks of systemic risk in certain segments of financial markets and in selected countries).
during 2011 - the high volatility of the dollar as world reserve currency, causing the mirror fluctuations in the prices of goods and financial assets (within 10 - 15% annual average), increasing trend since 2010 move to increase interest rates as central banks, a correction in prices the gold reaching highs of ancient, massive speculation and high spreads in the market of government bonds (with a gradual smoothing markets by the end of the year), continued upward pressure on rates of Asian currencies (yen, yuan, etc.).
Against this background - 2 - 3 periods a rally in stock markets, interspersed with movements in the "corridors", with 1 - 2 short-term market shocks from sudden manifestation of the systemic risks (countries with excessive public debt, overheating in emerging markets, undeveloped risks of system institutions, bursts of volatility in commodity and currency derivatives). Conservation wide corridors in the movement of world prices for oil and metals (up to 25 - 30% annual average).
Predicted targets on shares: the developed markets - the growth indices 5 - 20%, emerging markets - 10 - 30%, with areas of intensive growth - fall on individual countries range from - 10 to +40%. Resumption of cautious growth in debt mass and the derivatives market, "ostuzhennyh" in 2010, t.ch their international component.

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Dream of winter

Now that the gray and mediocre squeezes under the eyes, I dream of the winter. Contrary to stereotypes, white and frost is a very dynamic components. And when the sun decides to see the work of the winter, you have the most beautiful exhibition of jewelry a man ahead of him. On hand pulling a hundred carats collected outdo each other in beams and migotach. Often, the pictures presented snow blues, and experts point out that snow is white. But each of us witnessed the color of snow modeling by the sun, which governs us. So I dream of the winter, so they remember from their first readings, by the next-all beautiful like that last December's. This pictured, has recently captured, already "przecierkami, the greenness of the substrate and shrubs. For now, I have enough sleep for the winter, but close to returning, very soon ...