Sunday, May 29, 2011
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Wednesday, May 25, 2011
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devaluation of the ruble in Belarus was inevitable. The country has a high negative balance of trade and small reserves. Such an economy exposed to risks of currency panics. Belarusian Central Bank will be up to the last stand is not to release rate in a fully free float, as it is fraught with hyperinflation. If we manage to bring down a financial panic, the devaluation of the serious increase export capacity to increase gold reserves. But if the point of equilibrium will be found if the government will impose overly restrictive, and the panic continues, it is not ruled out economic crisis in a single country.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
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Wednesday, May 18, 2011
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dynamics of world markets in 2011, follows the usual yearly scenario: through May - the growth, then four or five months - the fall and volatility, starting in September - the growth. From May to September, the markets could use any excuse to fall and then to rise again. If the default Greece occurred in May 2010, it would be a global financial catastrophe. Over the past year, the markets have adapted to the idea of \u200b\u200brestructuring the Greek debt. Possible losses of European banks have already minimized. This means that if the news goes on the restructuring of debts of Greece, with high probability this is not will collapse, followed by a new round of crisis. Instead, it will leave the market down (with subsequent fluctuations in the summer) and the growth since the beginning of autumn, without interruption worldwide trend resumption of economic growth.
Sunday, May 1, 2011
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Monday, April 18, 2011
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There was mass speculation about the likelihood of default on sovereign debt of the United States. The series, consisting three blog entries will contain a detailed explanation - why the probability of it negligible.
Do I need this explanation for the "Bedtime stories"?
Lest we discussed the mythic events, false risks, children's fears in financial markets, addressing the real issues, which a great deal.
Argument 6. share of non-residents - holders of sovereign debt the U.S. is 30,3% ( Table 4 ). Investment base of sovereign debt formed mainly within the U.S. (the proportion of residents - 69.7%).
main investor - the state itself. The share of central bank (Fed) federal agencies and non-budgetary funds of the Government in the ownership structure of public debt amounts to 40,4% of its amount, taking into account the investment states and municipalities - 44,3%. The economic content of this or emission (investment Fed), or a deduction from the public debt (the state's investment in their own debts).
It can be naraschena to more than 50% (2001 - 2007 was over 51 - 54%).

Argument 7. normalized (increased to pre-crisis values) Medium term U.S. government debt ( Table 5 ). For the obligations owned by private investors, he has reached almost 5 years.

argument 8. In the long term there may be a script (so far with a small probability), in which the increase in public debt U.S. will lead to a noticeable increase in the use of money issue to cover the deficit and, consequently, to a noticeable increase in inflation and downward pressure on U.S. dollar exchange rate.
Factors of concern are as follows. In recent years there has been a return to the improving capacity of government debt United States, primarily to counter the crisis, 2008 - 2009 years. ( Table 6 ). If in the future rate of increase in the debt burden will be reduced, as has happened earlier, the situation is normalized in the coming years.

impact on the economy of Russia
defaulted on sovereign debt the U.S. would mean the world financial meltdown and a deep crisis in the global economy, which would be raised in the first place, the Russian Federation (scenario 2008 - 2009.) would cause large-scale economic and social disruption.
It defined the leading U.S. role in global economics and finance. Experience in crisis 2007 - 2009 years., Trigger which became U.S. financial markets (mortgages, securitization products, the risks of the banking sector) fully confirms this fact.
Russian Economy Federation in a large-scale highly dependent on global economic growth of world demand for raw materials, the dynamics of the U.S. dollar as world reserve currency on the prices of energy and metals, which are formed in foreign financial markets, access to international capital markets.
forecast in the long term 10 - 15 years preserving U.S. global leadership in reducing the U.S. share of world GDP and advance the growth of other centers of economic (production, domestic demand, consumption of the population). As a consequence, will develop multipolar architecture of global finance, will shape the world monetary system, based on 2 - 3 reserve currencies.
In this situation, the top priority of the Russian Federation is a partnership with all key financial players (the United States - Britain, the euro, Asian Center, the Latin American cluster, first of all, Brazil that international investors view as an analogue of Russia). Goal - diversification of external relations, to benefit from partnerships with all the financial centers, financial equidistance, making it possible to maximize the benefits in the prevention of imbalances in financial vector foreign policy.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
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There was mass speculation the probability of default on sovereign debt of the United States. The series, consisting of three blog entries will contain a detailed explanation - why the probability of this negligible.
Do I need this explanation for the "bedtime stories"?
That we have not discussed the mythical events, false risks to children's fears financial markets, addressing the real issues, which a great deal.
Argument 3. growth of the relative level of sovereign U.S. debt (gross debt) corresponds to a similar trend in other major industrial economies (Table 2). Their saturation with money, debt instruments, associated with the state, is constantly increasing, including through the ability to engage in money centers "excess liquidity" from developing countries (International reserves, export of private capital). This long-term trend is not interrupted by crisis in 2008 - 2009 years.

Argument 4. quantity of pure sovereign U.S. debt (Table 3) is much lower GDP (Table 2). Net debt - this is gross debt minus government deposits in banks and other liquid financial assets owned by the government and which can be converted into money and to repay debt.
debt burden in the U.S. are lower than in other countries "Big Seven" and in the euro area (Table 3).

Argument 5. Sovereign U.S. debt is denominated in national currency - U.S. dollars. Borrowing other currencies are insignificant. There is no scarcity of foreign exchange for repayment in it (the most important cause of defaults on state debt). As a last resort, the state can use the issue of national currency to meet the obligations and avoid default.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
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False directs the actions of our pride, inflated ego does not allow for humility, especially when a woman deserves an apology. Often turn upside down and pretend to be victims themselves. A funny man, and raised their children, if you can not muster that word-balm.
Friday, April 8, 2011
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There was mass speculation about the likelihood of default on sovereign debt of the United States. The series, consisting of three blog entries will contain a detailed explanation - Why the probability of it negligible.
Do I need this explanation for the "bedtime stories"?
That we have not discussed the mythical events, false risks childish fears in financial markets, addressing the real issues, which a great deal.
Methodological remarks : In the note as alias (in accordance with statistical practice), the terms federal U.S. debt (Federal Debt), the U.S. national debt (Public Debt), the U.S. sovereign debt. Economic content - the debts of the federal government.
estimate of the probability of default. In the medium term the probability of default disparagingly small. Decision about the default was to be unprofessional, irrational, with no economic justification. The script that implements the default - only in the case of a completely irresponsible and unqualified management team managers (the U.S. administration, monetary authorities in the U.S.) if she did not have No political, economic and financial expertise. The situation for the U.S. impossible.
Arguments:
Argument 1 . Level of sovereign U.S. debt until the is "normal" for the leading industrialized countries (G-7) (Table 1).
Argument 2. dimension of sovereign debt of the United States and other leading industrial countries is largely a consequence of their greater "financial depth» (financial depth) - greater saturation money (monetization of the economy), debt-asset finance instruments ("financialization"), in comparison with other countries. The U.S. and other G-7 countries - including 20% \u200b\u200bof world economies that have the highest monetization, most "penetrated" debts.
The higher the level of economic development, greater financial depth of the country, the greater its ability to attract investment in the economy through debt instruments (loans, bonds, treasury bills, etc.). The higher the level of debt (government, corporate, retail). This confirmed by extensive factual basis in studies of financial development, the World Bank.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
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Sunday, March 27, 2011
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Sunday, March 20, 2011
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Friday, March 18, 2011
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If a country has an earthquake, risks of a sharp economic deterioration, a common scenario - the flight of capital, intensified the demand for dollars, euros, etc., falling local currency, the flash inflation, the crisis of banks, etc. In Japan - all the way around. Strengthening yen, from 11 to 18 March by 4,8% against the U.S. dollar. Yen "vertically" went up. Reasons? Firstly, This rise reinforced the long-term trend. For four years (March 18, 2007 - March 18, 2011). Potyazhelela yen a third against the U.S. dollar (strengthened by 33%). Secondly, in Japan - a very strong international investment position (investments abroad almost twice the funds raised). This is a country - Exporter capital. Therefore, "capital flight", "sudden stop non-residents investments" - all the things that cause financial turmoil in Russia and other developing countries - does not play such a role. Bank of Japan to keep the situation, announced March 14 on the transfer of additional liquidity in circulation, the broad money support of financial institutions by buying their assets - government and corporate bonds, mutual funds. The limits of this program ransom had been raised in the 8-fold - from 5 to 40 trillion. yen (about U.S. $ 500 billion). Presumably, to obtain cash for liquidity support, without resorting to the issue, the Bank Japan began to sell its assets in foreign currency (dollar, euro, etc.). Or borrow yen. Consequence - increase in demand for the yen and, hence, its gain. Any fluctuations in the rates of key currencies (and the yen - one of them) are threatening global financial upheaval. It is therefore understandable attempt to counter other central Banks G-7 to smooth out these spikes. Their possible actions - selling the yen and its assets denominated in it, and, therefore, downward pressure on the currency, against the market forces pushing it up. It is not clear whether enough material market in the assets of the central banks of developed countries to implement intervention. In the structure of their foreign exchange reserves yen is only 5% (about $ 130 billion in autumn 2010). Can be calculated - the effect of statements of intent. Or on a coordinated central bank play a fall in the markets of foreign exchange derivatives that do not require cash reserves of the yen, but it can significantly influence its course.
Japan's share in Russian exports - 3.1% in import - 3,7%, the accumulated foreign investments - 3,2%. Not higher than the share of yen in assets and liabilities Russian banks. Therefore, fluctuations in the yen will not have significant influence on the ruble. A different matter if economic and financial situation in Japan will deteriorate and will - according to the rule trigger - crisis response, addressed to global finance.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
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Saturday, March 5, 2011
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Russian economy and its financial sector - one of the most volatile in the world. The reasons for this - in my book, due out in April ("The financial future of Russia: the extremes, booms, system risks ").
example.
known thesis about how the accumulation of international reserves, the National Welfare Fund and Reserve Fund ("safety cushion") saved the Russian economy in crisis 2008 - 2009 years.
not saved. Everything was absolutely the opposite.
by a representative group of the largest (and most developed) economies in the world, which is monitoring the magazine «Economist», no one country do not fall capitalization and so is not falling down the exchange rate, as in Russia (Table 1). The most profound was the decline in GDP. The most high - inflation (excluding Venezuela). In the most reduced international reserves. The largest loss of accumulated foreign direct and portfolio investment. One of the highest per cent (Table 1). Will be shown below that in Russia crisis passed through the deepest drop in the money supply, unusual for other countries, who at that time built up its liquidity. "Airbags" (High international reserves and reserve funds, budget surplus, a healthy balance of trade) have not saved from being Russia's financial system showed the worst financial crisis dynamics during 2008 - 2009 years. in comparison with other major countries.
Table 1. The behavior of the financial systems of countries world in crisis in 2008
a «color-drenched" quadrants of the table refer to the countries, the indicators which showed the worst values \u200b\u200bamong the other countries in the period of market shocks, fall 2009 - winter 2010
* Stocks - according to the magazine "Economist", 2009, 3 January, in U.S. dollars exchange rate change - February 2009 to the end of 2007, according to the IMF International Financial Statisitics; change in GDP at constant prices (national currency), inflation (consumer price index, the annual average) - IMF World Economic Outlook Database. Data on changes in international reserves - IMF COFER Database, including Norway - for November 2008, the euro area - by the Eurosystem (the state - members of the eurozone and the European the central bank)
Table 1. The behavior of the financial systems of countries in crisis in 2008 (continued)

* Percentage (Lending Rate, Corporations, Stocks, up to 1 - 2 years), the change of accumulated direct and portfolio investment in the economy - IMF International Financial Statistics
Saturday, February 26, 2011
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Monday, February 21, 2011
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how to make the Russian economy growing steadily, and the financial sector - a prosperous? One from the obvious recipe - the growth rate of accumulation, the cessation of O "excess liquidity" from Russia, the focus on domestic demand growth, primarily middle- class.
higher savings rate, the greater the rate of economic growth. In Russia it is low enough and at the level of developed countries (25% in 2008, 19% in 2009) whereas for the creation of conditions for high economic growth rate of savings must be maintained at a level above 30% (China - more than 40%). Table below compares the rate of accumulation of several countries:
Country,
2007 Growth of capital and reserves / GDP,%
China 43,1
Kazakhstan 36,1
India 37,6
Russia 24,6
Greece 22,3
U.S. 19,5
UK 18,3
Germany 18,4
More than 50% of developing economies have a higher accumulation rate of 26%. Over 80% of developed countries - less 26%. Loading the Russian economy as "developed" (taxes - about 50% of GDP, a low savings rate, excessive consumption of government), taking out a business financial resources, we can not expect rapid modernization and social stability
Thursday, February 17, 2011
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Wednesday, February 9, 2011
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AXN TV began its program of a social nature as "AXN. We run the imagination. " is a nationwide project aimed for school-age children who attend social clubs . Its purpose is to awaken creativity and imagination of children, giving them the chance to be zauważonymi, docenionymi, to encourage teamwork and motivation to act. We sent our
comics:) and managed to got to the next stage:)
Thursday, February 3, 2011
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Wednesday, February 2, 2011
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Wednesday, January 26, 2011
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Tuesday, January 25, 2011
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completely - and completely erroneous forecast of the famous Rudolf Hilferding, made in 1909 ("Financial Capital", Moscow - Leningrad: State Socio-Economic Publishing House, 1931. - P.345):
«parallel reduction the role of speculation, change and the psychology of the capitalist public. Psychology of the speculator is very primitive, although his fans and try to open it prophetic abilities and romantic poryvaniya a worldwide reformation. In fact, the changes that have occurred in the behavior of the speculating public sufficiently explained by the common place of capitalist man: live and learn - and not cum still stupid. It seems irrevocably passed those mass psychosis as engender speculation in the early capitalist era, those blissful days when every speculator felt like a god, creating world out of nothing. Fuss with tulips, with their so idyllic overtones, as a poetic love of flowers, humbug to the South sea stocks, surrounded by adventurist - exciting fantasy unprecedented discovery, draft Law on his prospects for world conquest, it's all pushed frank hunter for differential profit, but it ends up crash in 1873 Since then disappeared faith in the miraculous power of credit and Exchange ... Exchange shedding their faithful and retained only the priests, who from other faith do their gesheft ... uplifting and profitable extravagance evaporated, tulips have long faded, and coffee tree gives a trading profit, but does not present speculative profits. Prose poetry kills profits. "
All this is completely untrue and now, a hundred years after these words were written.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
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Financial Dynamics 2011 will be determined by the "cold" (low-rate and deviations) restoring the economy of industrialized countries (the second year after the crisis of 2007 - 2009.) slowdown of the developing countries, a gradual retraction their processes in rebalancing the world economy (with a change in "financial picture" of the world), against the backdrop of a cautious resumption of financial globalization, growth in financial depth (financial depth) and the securitization of national economies, increase their capitalization, slow, gradual loss of imbalance and the extreme volatility of global finance (with periodic outbreaks of systemic risk in certain segments of financial markets and in selected countries).
during 2011 - the high volatility of the dollar as world reserve currency, causing the mirror fluctuations in the prices of goods and financial assets (within 10 - 15% annual average), increasing trend since 2010 move to increase interest rates as central banks, a correction in prices the gold reaching highs of ancient, massive speculation and high spreads in the market of government bonds (with a gradual smoothing markets by the end of the year), continued upward pressure on rates of Asian currencies (yen, yuan, etc.).
Against this background - 2 - 3 periods a rally in stock markets, interspersed with movements in the "corridors", with 1 - 2 short-term market shocks from sudden manifestation of the systemic risks (countries with excessive public debt, overheating in emerging markets, undeveloped risks of system institutions, bursts of volatility in commodity and currency derivatives). Conservation wide corridors in the movement of world prices for oil and metals (up to 25 - 30% annual average).
Predicted targets on shares: the developed markets - the growth indices 5 - 20%, emerging markets - 10 - 30%, with areas of intensive growth - fall on individual countries range from - 10 to +40%. Resumption of cautious growth in debt mass and the derivatives market, "ostuzhennyh" in 2010, t.ch their international component.