Financial Dynamics 2011 will be determined by the "cold" (low-rate and deviations) restoring the economy of industrialized countries (the second year after the crisis of 2007 - 2009.) slowdown of the developing countries, a gradual retraction their processes in rebalancing the world economy (with a change in "financial picture" of the world), against the backdrop of a cautious resumption of financial globalization, growth in financial depth (financial depth) and the securitization of national economies, increase their capitalization, slow, gradual loss of imbalance and the extreme volatility of global finance (with periodic outbreaks of systemic risk in certain segments of financial markets and in selected countries).
during 2011 - the high volatility of the dollar as world reserve currency, causing the mirror fluctuations in the prices of goods and financial assets (within 10 - 15% annual average), increasing trend since 2010 move to increase interest rates as central banks, a correction in prices the gold reaching highs of ancient, massive speculation and high spreads in the market of government bonds (with a gradual smoothing markets by the end of the year), continued upward pressure on rates of Asian currencies (yen, yuan, etc.).
Against this background - 2 - 3 periods a rally in stock markets, interspersed with movements in the "corridors", with 1 - 2 short-term market shocks from sudden manifestation of the systemic risks (countries with excessive public debt, overheating in emerging markets, undeveloped risks of system institutions, bursts of volatility in commodity and currency derivatives). Conservation wide corridors in the movement of world prices for oil and metals (up to 25 - 30% annual average).
Predicted targets on shares: the developed markets - the growth indices 5 - 20%, emerging markets - 10 - 30%, with areas of intensive growth - fall on individual countries range from - 10 to +40%. Resumption of cautious growth in debt mass and the derivatives market, "ostuzhennyh" in 2010, t.ch their international component.
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