There was mass speculation about the likelihood of default on sovereign debt of the United States. The series, consisting three blog entries will contain a detailed explanation - why the probability of it negligible.
Do I need this explanation for the "Bedtime stories"?
Lest we discussed the mythic events, false risks, children's fears in financial markets, addressing the real issues, which a great deal.
Argument 6. share of non-residents - holders of sovereign debt the U.S. is 30,3% ( Table 4 ). Investment base of sovereign debt formed mainly within the U.S. (the proportion of residents - 69.7%).
main investor - the state itself. The share of central bank (Fed) federal agencies and non-budgetary funds of the Government in the ownership structure of public debt amounts to 40,4% of its amount, taking into account the investment states and municipalities - 44,3%. The economic content of this or emission (investment Fed), or a deduction from the public debt (the state's investment in their own debts).
It can be naraschena to more than 50% (2001 - 2007 was over 51 - 54%).
Argument 7. normalized (increased to pre-crisis values) Medium term U.S. government debt ( Table 5 ). For the obligations owned by private investors, he has reached almost 5 years.
argument 8. In the long term there may be a script (so far with a small probability), in which the increase in public debt U.S. will lead to a noticeable increase in the use of money issue to cover the deficit and, consequently, to a noticeable increase in inflation and downward pressure on U.S. dollar exchange rate.
Factors of concern are as follows. In recent years there has been a return to the improving capacity of government debt United States, primarily to counter the crisis, 2008 - 2009 years. ( Table 6 ). If in the future rate of increase in the debt burden will be reduced, as has happened earlier, the situation is normalized in the coming years.
impact on the economy of Russia
defaulted on sovereign debt the U.S. would mean the world financial meltdown and a deep crisis in the global economy, which would be raised in the first place, the Russian Federation (scenario 2008 - 2009.) would cause large-scale economic and social disruption.
It defined the leading U.S. role in global economics and finance. Experience in crisis 2007 - 2009 years., Trigger which became U.S. financial markets (mortgages, securitization products, the risks of the banking sector) fully confirms this fact.
Russian Economy Federation in a large-scale highly dependent on global economic growth of world demand for raw materials, the dynamics of the U.S. dollar as world reserve currency on the prices of energy and metals, which are formed in foreign financial markets, access to international capital markets.
forecast in the long term 10 - 15 years preserving U.S. global leadership in reducing the U.S. share of world GDP and advance the growth of other centers of economic (production, domestic demand, consumption of the population). As a consequence, will develop multipolar architecture of global finance, will shape the world monetary system, based on 2 - 3 reserve currencies.
In this situation, the top priority of the Russian Federation is a partnership with all key financial players (the United States - Britain, the euro, Asian Center, the Latin American cluster, first of all, Brazil that international investors view as an analogue of Russia). Goal - diversification of external relations, to benefit from partnerships with all the financial centers, financial equidistance, making it possible to maximize the benefits in the prevention of imbalances in financial vector foreign policy.
0 comments:
Post a Comment