Saturday, March 5, 2011

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future financial Crisis: "safety cushion" again would not work. Extreme Russia.

Russian economy and its financial sector - one of the most volatile in the world. The reasons for this - in my book, due out in April ("The financial future of Russia: the extremes, booms, system risks ").

example.

known thesis about how the accumulation of international reserves, the National Welfare Fund and Reserve Fund ("safety cushion") saved the Russian economy in crisis 2008 - 2009 years.

not saved. Everything was absolutely the opposite.

by a representative group of the largest (and most developed) economies in the world, which is monitoring the magazine «Economist», no one country do not fall capitalization and so is not falling down the exchange rate, as in Russia (Table 1). The most profound was the decline in GDP. The most high - inflation (excluding Venezuela). In the most reduced international reserves. The largest loss of accumulated foreign direct and portfolio investment. One of the highest per cent (Table 1). Will be shown below that in Russia crisis passed through the deepest drop in the money supply, unusual for other countries, who at that time built up its liquidity. "Airbags" (High international reserves and reserve funds, budget surplus, a healthy balance of trade) have not saved from being Russia's financial system showed the worst financial crisis dynamics during 2008 - 2009 years. in comparison with other major countries.



Table 1. The behavior of the financial systems of countries world in crisis in 2008




a «color-drenched" quadrants of the table refer to the countries, the indicators which showed the worst values \u200b\u200bamong the other countries in the period of market shocks, fall 2009 - winter 2010

* Stocks - according to the magazine "Economist", 2009, 3 January, in U.S. dollars exchange rate change - February 2009 to the end of 2007, according to the IMF International Financial Statisitics; change in GDP at constant prices (national currency), inflation (consumer price index, the annual average) - IMF World Economic Outlook Database. Data on changes in international reserves - IMF COFER Database, including Norway - for November 2008, the euro area - by the Eurosystem (the state - members of the eurozone and the European the central bank)



Table 1. The behavior of the financial systems of countries in crisis in 2008 (continued)



* Percentage (Lending Rate, Corporations, Stocks, up to 1 - 2 years), the change of accumulated direct and portfolio investment in the economy - IMF International Financial Statistics

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