Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Sore Throat Hard To Swallow Lump On Neck

U.S. sovereign default - do not believe your eyes. Series Two.

There was mass speculation the probability of default on sovereign debt of the United States. The series, consisting of three blog entries will contain a detailed explanation - why the probability of this negligible.
Do I need this explanation for the "bedtime stories"?
That we have not discussed the mythical events, false risks to children's fears financial markets, addressing the real issues, which a great deal.


Argument 3. growth of the relative level of sovereign U.S. debt (gross debt) corresponds to a similar trend in other major industrial economies (Table 2). Their saturation with money, debt instruments, associated with the state, is constantly increasing, including through the ability to engage in money centers "excess liquidity" from developing countries (International reserves, export of private capital). This long-term trend is not interrupted by crisis in 2008 - 2009 years.



Argument 4. quantity of pure sovereign U.S. debt (Table 3) is much lower GDP (Table 2). Net debt - this is gross debt minus government deposits in banks and other liquid financial assets owned by the government and which can be converted into money and to repay debt.
debt burden in the U.S. are lower than in other countries "Big Seven" and in the euro area (Table 3).



Argument 5. Sovereign U.S. debt is denominated in national currency - U.S. dollars. Borrowing other currencies are insignificant. There is no scarcity of foreign exchange for repayment in it (the most important cause of defaults on state debt). As a last resort, the state can use the issue of national currency to meet the obligations and avoid default.

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