negative scenario is not considered (the fragmentation of global finance as a result of military Conflict (extrapolation of the twentieth century, faults Europe, U.S., Asia)).
alternative - the continuation of the globalization of finance, formation of multipolar financial architecture while maintaining the dominant role of the Anglo-Saxon model (the design of New York - London - off-shore "). The transition to a polycentric world reserve system (the dollar in the first place, the euro, is one of the Asian currencies (yen, yuan, collective), the regional reserve currencies). Rebalancing "bipolar model "of world economy (the return of export earnings of developing countries in the industrialized world as the basis of his" life debt "). As a consequence, clustering, regionalization of global finance. Expansion of supranational financial regulation. Formation of 3-tier system for stabilization of financial systems (IMF - regional stabilization funds - central bank).
continued cyclical, according to the exponential growth of financial depth (financial depth) of the world economy, interrupted by crises, knocks exponent. The studies often show that this is impossible without economic development. "Financiarisation / Securitization of the world (the transformation of large parts of goods and financial assets in liquid financial instruments, the gap between current prices of basic factors).
Overlay cyclical dynamics of different depths.
first - long (Kondratieff) cycles in the world economy m. financial dynamics. In the twentieth century, they are clearly visible. Prospective new cycle: 2011 - 2020's - the upward phase, exponential heating of the financial markets, bring down the new scale crisis at the turn of the 2030's. The imposition on them of cycles "regulation - deregulation, with a return to deregulation in the 2020-ies. Many local crises (In cycles of "exponential growth of financial assets - sverhkontsentratsiya risk - drop") on the periphery of global finance (in emerging markets such as Russia, - 1 -2 times in 5 - 15 years).
second - the cycle of changes in the global monetary system (as the core of global finance). 1890 - 1940-ies. - Increase the volatility of world Finance (bumazhnodenezhnye military finance, finance industrialization), 1950 - 1960. - Its "pacification", 1970 - 2000-ies. - A constant strengthening of risk, fluctuations, imbalance Global Finance (the starting point - separation from the gold at the turn of 1970.). "The point of bifurcation" 2010 - 2011 years. - Or pay off the excesses of volatility, the global lead finances to a more balanced state (world reform of financial regulation, countercyclical policy and "Disaster Medicine", Monetary authorities), or within 3 - 4 years - a new world financial crisis.
third - long-term cyclical movement of the world's reserve currency (U.S. dollar) directly affecting the prices of goods and financial assets and economic conditions. In the 1970's - 2000's. clearly visible 15 - 20-year cycles. In 2011 - 2030 years. fit into the regular long cycle of "strengthening - weakening" the U.S. dollar.
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